Update I – Peace Process
Turkey’s peace process reached a significant milestone in August with the adoption by Parliament of the new Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion. As we reported in August, the law was passed by 468 votes to 88, with six abstentions, following a period of consultation with key actors. This marks a significant step in the process and represents one of the first major legislative measures taken to move the process forward. Attention is now shifting towards practical arrangements for disarmament, monitoring and verification, and the legal and political integration of those covered by the process.
Provisions of the Law:
The 12-article law establishes a legal framework for the conditional application of its provisions to individuals who meet the eligibility criteria. These provisions will take effect once the relevant authorities determine that the armed group has fully dissolved its organisational structures and surrendered its weapons, and the required confirmation is issued by the National Security Council. Eligible individuals will then have six months to benefit from these provisions. The law does not extend to the movement’s senior leadership and excludes individuals convicted of intentional killing, as well as individuals serving life or aggravated life sentences for offences committed before 1 June 2005. On 24 August, the Monitoring and Evaluation Board held its first meeting and established four subcommittees to address different aspects of the process, including the monitoring and verification of disarmament and measures concerning those leaving the group. We understand that preparations are underway; however, the timetable for September and October appears ambitious.
At the same time, the political and social arrangements required for the next stage remain under discussion, and several important questions have yet to be resolved. These include how the subcommittees will operate and how the broader political dimensions of the process will be addressed beyond disarmament. Given the scale of the process and the practical and political questions that remain, some delay appears increasingly possible. This is a matter of concern, particularly as expectations surrounding the process have been set relatively high, while the ability to meet the reported timetable remains uncertain.
The law does not provide for a blanket amnesty. Access to its provisions is conditional and will depend on the circumstances and eligibility of everyone. Its implementation will therefore require clear legal criteria and procedures for determining eligibility, as well as arrangements for the return of those covered by the law.
Beyond the immediate questions of disarmament and individual eligibility, the process will also need to address its wider political dimension. Questions concerning political participation, democratic reform and social reconciliation remain part of the broader discussion and are likely to become increasingly important as implementation progresses.
Overall Assessment
One of the main strengths of the new legal framework is its broad cross-party support. The scale of the parliamentary vote is particularly significant, with 468 MPs from across the major political parties voting in favour of the law. This level of support, combined with the fact that the process is generally articulated as state policy, provides an important degree of political continuity, including in the event of a future change of government. The law also provides opportunities for further parliamentary involvement and legal protections, which could be important for legislative oversight and increasing public buy-in.
There had been earlier concerns that the regional war could stall the process, or that the law could reverse progress if not sufficiently coordinated. With the passage of the law, these immediate obstacles appear, for now, to have been overcome. This represents an important strength as the process moves towards implementation.
At the same time, the law has important limitations. It should be seen as a first legislative step rather than a comprehensive legal framework for the process. Further implementation is likely to require broader legislative changes, including amendments to the Penal Code, electoral and political parties’ legislation, anti-terrorism legislation, and laws affecting freedom of expression. The current law remains largely focused on the security and legal aspects of disarmament and does not address the broader questions of cultural and linguistic rights and education, nor the democratisation reforms set out in Chapter 7 of the Parliamentary Commission’s report.
Reactions to the law have been mixed but broadly accepting. While not all sides are fully satisfied, there is a general recognition that the law provides an opportunity to close the chapter on violence and reduce the economic burden of the conflict. Despite these concerns, there has so far been no significant public backlash against the law or the wider process. The challenge moving forward will be to reconcile different political positions with the substance of the measures required to address the underlying causes of the conflict. Some critics point to the law’s lack of detail. This may reflect a degree of strategic ambiguity needed to bridge differences within and between parties to secure a broad majority, but it could prove a liability later on.
Looking Ahead
The passage of the law marks an important step, but the next phase will be more demanding. The National Security Council must first confirm that disarmament has taken place before the six-month implementation period can begin. An important question remains as to what level of disarmament will need to be verified before this threshold is considered to have been met. The immediate focus will therefore be on monitoring and verification, the functioning of the parliamentary subcommittees, and the practical application of the law.
The reported timetable remains ambitious, and some delay is possible given the scale and complexity of the process. Such delays should not necessarily be seen as a setback, provided that implementation continues to move forward and political engagement is maintained. Beyond disarmament, broader 2 political and legal questions will also need to be addressed, while maintaining the cross-party consensus that has supported the process so far.
Overall, the new law provides an important basis for moving forward, but its implementation will require clear monitoring, continued political engagement and the involvement of a broader range of actors. Managing expectations will also be important as the process enters this more difficult phase.
DPI will continue to follow developments closely and support relevant actors through its planned activities as the process moves forward.