LEGAL FRAMEWORK NEARS PARLIAMENT.
After delays in June, Türkiye’s peace process regained momentum in July. Accelerated
preparations for the highly anticipated legal framework were the main focus of the agenda.
Discussions between the key actors continued throughout the month. Our understanding is that a draft of the legal framework was shared with, and approved by, the principal actors.
While contentious issues remain, there appears to be broad consensus on the content of the framework and agreement that some politically sensitive issues will be deferred to a later stage.
While no official draft has been released, the framework is expected to focus primarily on
the security and disarmament, demobilisation, return and reintegration (DDR) dimensions of the process. As such, it is likely to represent only a partial arrangement. However, it may provide guidance on subsequent stages and reference more contentious issues – for example, arrangements concerning the organisation’s leader and top leadership, without including specific provisions. According to updated information, the legal draft is not expected to include provisions concerning the organisation’s leader (AOI) or the leadership of the armed groups.
In terms of content, the legislation is expected to define judicial procedures for former
organisation members and establish categories such as rank-and-file members, diaspora members, senior leadership and prisoners. Early indications suggest some senior leaders may not be permitted to return to Türkiye, while others may face a @ive-year restriction on political activity. The framework is also expected to establish a Monitoring Commission to oversee implementation and verification, comprising representatives from relevant ministries and technical experts.
Our understanding is that the law could be enacted by mid-August. Senior government
figures continue to signal that the legislation is nearing completion, with intensive work
ongoing within the ruling party and reportedly through an AKP-DEM working group. While
the original plan was to submit the framework to Parliament this week, debate over several contentious issues has reportedly delayed its submission until next week. As a result, Parliament’s recess has been extended until 6 August. While difficult issues remain, we assess that there is likely to be broad political consensus behind the framework and that it will be signed into law by those previously represented in the Parliamentary Commission.
Further setbacks and delays are likely as the process continues, but the peace process has
reached a critical stage. The immediate risk of Parliament entering recess without a legal
framework appears to have been avoided. The debate has shifted from whether the process should continue to how it should be institutionalised and under what legal guarantees. The next phase will need to address the substantive political issues, with responsibility resting primarily with the main actors.